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Bitcoin Network Transactions Soar Close to Record Highs – Implications for BTC Price?”

According to data from crypto analytics firm Glassnode, the Bitcoin network recorded 432,613 transactions on April 23, the third-highest daily transaction count in its history and the highest since the peak in May 2019. Despite a recent pullback in the BTC price, with prices currently hovering in the $27,300 range after hitting 10-month highs above $31,000 earlier this month, network activity has remained robust. The 7-Day Exponential Moving Average of daily transactions has also risen to over 350,000, its highest level since December 2020. This surge in network utilization is a positive sign for Bitcoin, demonstrating strong demand for the cryptocurrency as a settlement layer. Other metrics such as active addresses, new addresses, and addresses holding a non-zero BTC balance have also been trending higher in recent months.

Measures of network utilization aren’t the only on-chain metrics that bode well for the Bitcoin price

As of Sunday, seven of eight indicators were flashing green, though in recent weeks all indicators have been flashing in unison on a frequent basis for the first time in more than two years.

Bitcoin’s strong rebound in 2023, which has seen BTC rally around 65% year-to-date, comes amid expectations that the end of the Fed’s interest rate tightening cycle (the main bearish headwind of 2022) is close to ending and after cryptocurrency markets arguably became well oversold at the end of last year in wake of the collapse of FTX.

Safe-haven demand has further boosted the BTC price amid concerns that the traditional banking sector might be in trouble in wake of a spate of US bank collapses in early March, though regulatory uncertainty amid a barrage of US SEC enforcement action has kept a lid on the upside.

But as global crypto adoption continues to move in the right direction and macro/on-chain conditions shift favorably, the outlook for the BTC in the medium to long term remains strong.

How High Can Bitcoin Go This Bull Market?

Assuming the Bitcoin bull market is back, how high can BTC go this cycle?

We can arrive at a guestimate by looking at Bitcoin’s past two market cycles, both of which lasted approximately four years.

From the bottom of the 2015 bear market to the top of the 2017 bull market, Bitcoin gained a staggering more than 12,500%.

From the bottom of its 2018 bear market to the top of its 2021 bull market, Bitcoin gained a still impressive 2,100%.

Assuming diminishing returns from each bear market comeback continue, could Bitcoin perhaps be looking at a 1,000% (11x) bounce from its 2022 lows?

That would imply Bitcoin reaching the $165,000 area sometime in the next few years.

Other more widely followed Bitcoin pricing models are sending a potentially more bullish story.

According to the Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow pricing model, the Bitcoin market cycle is roughly four years, which shows an estimated price level based on the number of BTC available in the market relative to the amount being mined each year.

Bitcoin’s fair price right now is around $55K and could rise above $500K in the next post-halving market cycle – that’s around 20x gains from current levels.

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